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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/29 11:29
Weaker Tones Lead Livestock Contracts Lower
It's been a rough day for the livestock complex as virtually no technical
support seems to be found.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
So far, it's been a rough day for the livestock contracts as prices are
lower and weaker tones dominate the marketplace. No new cash cattle trade has
been reported and it looks like the week's business is essentially done.
December corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down
$8.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 67.72 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Even though Thursday's market saw more technical support than earlier in the
week, the live cattle complex is back to trading lower. The cash cattle
market's steady/somewhat weaker tone hasn't lent much additional support as
this week's trade has trickled in by bits and pieces and its overall tone has
been soft. No new sales have been reported Friday morning and it's likely the
week's business is essentially done. So far this week, Northern dressed deals
have had a range of $288 to $293, mostly $290 to $291, $1 to $2 lower than last
week's weighted averages. Southern live transactions have been marked at $182
to $183, mostly $183, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. October
live cattle are down $1.75 at $184.75, December live cattle are down $1.95 at
$188.50 and February live cattle are down $1.57 at $193.05.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.90 ($302.41) and select down $0.11
($277.33) with a movement of 70 loads (42.44 loads of choice, 13.88 loads of
select, 5.82 loads of trim and 7.81 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower as traders again move the
spot November contract to the bottom of its recently established trading range.
The feeder cattle complex isn't lacking fundamental support, and the further
the market moves through October the better prices will likely become. Yes,
sale barns have seen slightly softer prices this past week, but it's only been
by $1.00 or $2.00 here and there, as the only groups really getting discounted
are the unweaned/unvaccinated calves. But without much support from the live
cattle/cash cattle market and with concerns that a government shutdown could
begin next week, feeders are remaining cautious. October feeders are down $2.60
at $252.12, November feeders are down $2.60 at $255.12 and January feeders are
down $1.85 at $258.20.
LEAN HOGS:
Traders are allowing the lean hog contracts to trade lower as the fears of a
government shutdown mixed with Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report isn't
setting well with the complex. The nearby contracts are seeing the biggest hit
as the contracts are trading mostly $3.00 lower, but $1.00 to $2.00 losses are
noted even in the deferred contracts. The spot December contract is trading at
the bottom of its trading range, but trades haven't broken through support at
this point. It's likely the market will close with this doggish mindset as
support isn't seeming to develop fundamentally or technically. October lean
hogs are down $3.70 at $80.25, December lean hogs are down $3.75 at $71.77 and
February lean hogs are down $3.27 at $75.32.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/28/2023 is down $0.56 at $85.58, and
the actual index for 9/27/2023 is steady at $86.14. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.73 with a weighted average price of
$74.35, ranging from $72.00 to $75.50 on 1,155 head and a five-day rolling
average of $76.53. Pork cutouts total 142.60 loads with 128.94 loads of pork
cuts and 13.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.28, $96.64.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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