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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/28 10:58

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents lower and wheat is 8 
to 13 cents lower.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 580. The dollar index is 5 
lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude down 
$2.60. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 


   Corn trade is flat to a penny lower in choppy midday trade. Trade is looking 
for better support to develop as May takes over as the front month. Ethanol 
margins remain tight with more pressure on blender margins with the pressure in 
the energy complex while ethanol remains flat. Corn basis remains steady, with 
mixed action so far this week. On the May contract, support is the fresh lows 
at $3.65 marked Friday, with resistance at the lower Bollinger band at $3.70, 
which we are just below.


   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower. Action is trying to bounce back from 
early selling for the fourth-straight positive close this week. Meal is $2.00 
to $3.00 higher, and oil is 50 to 60 points lower with meal the big upside 
leader this week. South America remains a bit off normal harvest pace, but 
issues overall are limited. Argentina export tax changes is the biggest news. 
The Brazilian real remains very cheap, as well, hurting U.S. export 
competitiveness near term with new lows scored this week. New-crop soybeans 
will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in 
the U.S. Positive action has been seen so far this week, but not enough to 
change the conversation yet. USDA announced 135,000 metric tons of meal to the 
Philippines. The May soybean chart support is the lower Bollinger band at 
$8.82, with resistance the 20-day at $8.95.


   Wheat trade is 6 to 8 cents lower. Spring wheat trade is holding up the best 
so far this morning, with Chicago trade seeing the most pressure. Weather 
threats for the Plains remain limited with mostly warmer short-term weather 
after the recent rain and snow. KC is at a 73-cent discount to Chicago on the 
May, with choppy action so far. Meanwhile, Minneapolis is even vs. the May with 
the March going into delivery at 18 cents. Partial crop condition reports 
Monday showed no major issues so far for the Plains states. World export 
business has been quieter in recent days. The May KC chart support is $4.42 
with resistance the lower Bollinger band at $4.52.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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