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DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/29 10:53
Corn, Beans and Wheat Lower
Corn trade is 2 cents to 3 cents lower; beans are 5 cents to 7 cents lower
and wheat trade is 5 cents to 6 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P 500 up 20. The dollar index is
18 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with
crude at .75 lower and natural gas .01 higher. Livestock trade is sharply
lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 7 lower.
CORN:
Corn trade is 2 cents to 3 cents lower at midday with trade holding near the
recent highs as we head towards today's quarterly stocks report and harvest
continuing to move forward. Ethanol margins will likely stay sideways
short-term with driving demand stable into early fall with unleaded pulling
back a little more to press blender margins this morning.
The daily wire saw a few sales to Mexico of 223,450 metric tons (mt) and
137,160 mt. Basis should drift lower for early harvest with a better pace
expected into the weekend. On the report today, trade is looking for stocks at
1.429 billion. On the December chart, the 20-day at $4.81 1/4 is support which
we need to get trade more excited with the $5 area looming above the market,
with the recent low at $4.67 3/4 as further support.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean trade is 5 cents to 7 cents lower with trade seeing broad product
weakness and harvest pressure as we hold just above the recent lows. Meal is
4.50 to 5.50 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. The daily wire has been
quiet this week.
Basis will fade with harvest picking up again with the river system still
declining inflows. South American weather shouldn't limit planting progress
much short-term with rains starting to move into Central Brazil, although on
the light side. On the report, trade is looking for stocks at 242 million
bushels. November chart support is a fresh low at $12.84 1/2, with resistance
to the 20-day at $13.32.
WHEAT:
Wheat trade is 5 cents to 6 cents lower with selling pressure returning in
the day session as fade KC to fresh lows ahead of the report. Matif wheat is
lower with the dollar just below 10-month highs even with the early weakness.
Plains planting progress should move forward with warm and drier conditions
likely to challenge stands early with the second week possibly wetter while
Australia struggles. Little change in the Black Sea situation is seen with
bushels still moving out and planting just underway.
On the report, trade is looking for stocks at 1.772 billion bushels. On the
KC December chart, the 20-day at $7.23 is resistance with the lower Bollinger
Band at $6.87 which we are just below at midday with the fresh low at $6.79.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala
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