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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/17 11:07

   Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Higher

   Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
18 to 20 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 12 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
18 to 20 cents lower; wheat futures are 4 to 12 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is weaker with the S&P 45 lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 points 
lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude off 
2.50 and natural gas off .15. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are 
firmer with gold up 41.00.


   Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday with trade giving back early 
gains with flat to firm spread action as we work just below the recent highs. 
Ethanol margins will continue to work sideways with support from corn values 
short term while unleaded has faded back toward the lower end of the range, 
crimping some of the anticipated spring blender gains for now. Crop development 
in Brazil will be watched closer as double-crop planting winds up with the 
forecast drying a little to help wrap things up while Argentina limps toward 
the finish line. The daily export wire showed more life with 191,000 metric 
tons (mt) of corn sold to China for the fourth day of sales in a row. Basis 
remains flat to firmer. On the May chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band 
back below the market at $5.87, and the 20-day moving average just above the 
market at $6.38.


   Soybean futures are 18 to 20 cents lower with trade pressing into support 
levels as meal breaks lower, dragging crush margins lower as oil fails to hold 
its midweek rebound and we trend toward oversold conditions. Meal is $9.00 to 
$10.00 lower and oil is 30 to 40 points lower. Trade will be looking for the 
Brazil export pace to extend the strong recent movement with harvest moving 
along, with Argentina to catch some short-term moisture potentially as the 
growing season winds down. New crop continues to need more strength to swing 
acres with losses so far this week. Basis remains mostly sideways to soft near 
term. May chart resistance is at the $15.10 20-day moving average, which we are 
solidly below, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.44 as further resistance, 
and the Lower Bollinger Band at $14.76, which we are just below.


   Wheat futures are 4 to 12 cents higher with KC wheat leading as trade tries 
to confirm the first weekly gain in a month with spread action remaining stout 
and outside market weakness being shrugged off for now. The KC wheat areas look 
to remain on the shorter end of moisture over the next couple of weeks with 
short-term cold weather this weekend with SRW seeing moisture, with the 
Northern Plains cold and wet ahead of planting. World wheat weather remains 
mixed short term with India harvest starting in some areas. Matif wheat values 
are weaker again. Russia wants the grain corridor to extend only 60 days 
instead of 120. Negotiations continue. On the chart, KC May has the lower 
Bollinger band at $7.60 and a fresh low scored at $7.73 3/4 as support and the 
20-day moving average at $8.25, which we are just above at midday.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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