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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/21 11:38

   Grain Trending Lower at Middayi

   Trade is softer across the board at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 100 higher. The dollar 
index is 10 weaker. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with 
crude 0.40 higher. Livestock trade is lower with hogs limit down. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold 2.30 higher.


   Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with mixed action since 
overnight; traders note little fresh news. The forecast looks to trend towards 
warmer and drier into July with near term 1-4 inch rains lingering in many 
areas. Ethanol margins remain tight with blender margins getting a boost from 
the surge in crude values while ethanol futures have edged lower this AM. The 
trade continues to debate acreage losses and the yield effects of the late wet 
planting conditions that will keep uncertainty in this market for the growing 
season. Corn basis remains on a firmer trend, especially for the Eastern Belt. 
On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.41 1/2, with the 20-day at 
$4.31 below there. Resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $4.60. 


   Soybean trade is 7 to 10 cents lower with trade chopping lower as we start 
to move into more of a short-term range. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower, and oil 
is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with 
oil leading again today. World export demand remains slow, and the South 
American currencies cheap but firming vs. the dollar after the Fed statement. 
Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days 
passing for soybeans before potentially more open weather at the end of the 
month with trade trying to hold on to acres with November near the contract 
highs with changes to haying regulations on cover crops helping to finish 
planting. The July chart support is the 200-day at $9.07, with next support the 
100-day at $8.97, then the recent high at $9.21 as resistance.


   Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower in choppy overnight trade ahead of 
another harvest weekend. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is in the process of 
scoring new highs again. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east 
parts of the winter wheat belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with heat 
expected to help push things along to the west with harvest spreading into 
south-central Kansas with north of I-70 not expected until the end of next 
week. The dollar is testing 96 on the index with the sharp pullback after the 
Fed Statement. Black Sea-area weather remains mixed with world values soft. 
Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in 
corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. On the 
July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.51 with resistance again 
the 20-day at 4.59, which we are right at overnight.


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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